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This year the rate markets have come back to a more sensible reality after flirting with the la-la land of 7 cuts. And all the while, the more sensible equity markets have paid only fleeting attention to their rate brother's whining. As a guy who was brought up in the fixed income and currency markets, I'm increasingly finding more sensibility in the equity markets as I head into later stages of my career. Having five-year inflation expectations (as measured by the 5-year breakeven inflation rate) never ramp higher while cumulative inflation surged around 20% since January 2021 is a testament to his stalwart success. There have been no fumbles at the Fed so far during a protracted fight to ensure anchored inflation expectations and long term price stability.
Persons: Consensonomics, Jerome Powell's, Jay, Janet Yellen's, Janet, Stanley Druckenmiller, I'm, David Zervos Organizations: Equity
Opinion | Iran and Israel Weren’t Always Enemies
  + stars: | 2024-05-08 | by ( Karim Sadjadpour | ) www.nytimes.com   time to read: +1 min
“History is littered,” the British writer and politician Enoch Powell said, “with the wars which everybody knew would never happen.”A full-blown conflict between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Israel once seemed implausible. Iran and Israel are not natural adversaries. In contrast to other modern conflicts — between Israel and Palestine, Russia and Ukraine, China and Taiwan — Iran and Israel have no bilateral land or resource disputes. Their national strengths — Iran is an energy titan and Israel is a tech innovator — are more complementary than competitive. Iran was the second Muslim nation, after Turkey, to recognize Israel after its founding in 1948.
Persons: Enoch Powell, specter, King Cyrus the Great Locations: Islamic Republic of Iran, Israel, United States, Iran, Palestine, Russia, Ukraine, China, Taiwan, Turkey
A report on workplace culture at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation released on Tuesday revealed a broad, yearslong pattern of sexual harassment, discrimination and abuse of mostly women and members of minority groups by senior officials. The findings are likely to lead to another potentially bruising round of questions for the agency’s chair, Martin Gruenberg, who is scheduled to testify in Congress later this month. It described “fiefdoms” in regional offices, where senior managers protected other longtime employees from potential consequences stemming from more junior employees’ claims of mistreatment. Examples of the behavior, including senior examiners texting junior women pictures of their genitalia or taking them to brothels, were first reported by The Wall Street Journal in November. Tuesday’s report was the result of an independent investigation by Cleary Gottlieb, which was hired by a special committee created by the agency’s board after The Journal’s report.
Persons: Martin Gruenberg, , , Cleary Gottlieb, , Tuesday’s Organizations: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Wall Street
Gold rises on Fed rate cut hopes, Middle East tensions
  + stars: | 2024-05-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices ticked higher on Monday, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates later in the year and tensions in the Middle East lifted bullion's appeal. "Investors will look at the political situation in the Middle East and how the ongoing negotiations for a ceasefire play out. "Weaker U.S. data offers more policy flexibility for the Fed in terms of rate cuts," paving way for gold prices to stabilize, said IG market strategist Yeap Jun Rong. Markets are pricing in a 67% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, as per CME's FedWatch Tool. Meanwhile, the Perth Mint's gold product sales in April jumped two-fold from a month earlier, while silver sales fell to their lowest since December.
Persons: Kelvin Wong, Benjamin Netanyahu, Yeap Jun Rong, John Williams, Austan Goolsbee Organizations: Co, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, New York Fed Bank, Chicago Fed, Perth Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, OANDA, Gaza, U.S
But some economists have argued that flawed historical economic data puts this claim in question. The further back you go — the NBER data goes to about 1850 — the more common recessions were. He said the NBER's pre-1914 recession data, in particular, is "very poor," and that only economic data collected after World War II is of good quality. "So the growing share of services also means you're going to have more stable economic growth." AdvertisementTo be sure, while a stable economy has its benefits, it's not the only indicator of a healthy economy.
Persons: , they'll, haven't, George Selgin, what's, NBER, Selgin, Joseph H, Davis, Satyam Panday, Panday, it's, they've Organizations: Service, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cato Institute, of Labor Statistics didn't, US, Vanguard, US Department of Agriculture, Satyam, Federal Reserve, Fed
Mortgage rates dipped slightly late last week but remain relatively high. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But because inflation has been somewhat sticky in recent months, mortgage rates have remained elevated so far this year. Lower mortgage rates will bring more buyers onto the market, putting upward pressure on prices.
Persons: Fannie Mae Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve, Mortgage, Association, ARM Locations: Chevron
Three times a day we would gather "off the desk," and I would have to defend every stock we owned. First, there's the obvious mistakes that we have made: Bausch Health and Foot Locker . To signify the changes, he renamed it Bausch Health in 2018, after the eye-care company Valeant bought for $8.7 billion five years earlier. We thought the IPO market would come back, and Bausch Health would win the lawsuit and all would be back on track. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio.
Persons: Jeff Marks, Karen Cramer, Cramer, Karen, Max Palevsky, It's, Joseph Papa, Clint Eastwood, Papa, Jim Cramer, Valeant, Bausch, Locker, Mary Dillon, Dillon, Wall, Emerson, Cristiano Amon, Laxman Narasimhan, Howard Schultz, Narasimhan, Benckiser, Kevin Johnson, Schultz, Johnson, it's, , Foot Locker, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: Cramer &, Intel, Charitable Trust, Co, Starbucks, Bausch Health, Pharmaceuticals, Perrigo, Health, Norwich Pharmaceuticals, Former, Emerson Electric, Qualcomm, National, Eaton Corp, Broadcom, Palestine, PepsiCo, Nestle, Elliott Management, Emerson, CNBC, Getty Locations: China, , Israel, U.S, BHC, FL, Jinan, East China's Shandong province
A Meta product manager who also worked at Google in a similar role revealed some differences between the tech companies based on his experiences over the past six years. AdvertisementCompany transparencyMeta does maintain some of the transparency the company was known for in its earlier days, McKinnon wrote. At Meta, McKinnon was aware of what other teams were working on, partly through the company's internal forums and dashboards. At Google, employees mostly communicate through email or chat, so it's more difficult to know what everyone is doing, McKinnon wrote. At Google, McKinnon saw that projects were largely created and led by software engineers, and PMs played a more auxiliary role.
Persons: , Daniel McKinnon, Ray, McKinnon, Googlers, Meta's, Mark Zuckerberg, Sundar, Alphabet's, Sundar Pichai wasn't, Zuckerberg, Meta, VPs, Susan Li Organizations: Meta, Google, Service, Unit, Business, Facebook, . Software Engineers Locations: Meta
Read previewYoung Americans are feeling increasingly isolated from their offices and classrooms, and these "disconnected youth" — or "opportunity youth" — may be ill-positioned for the future. Loneliness and a tough job market are leaving many Gen Zers feeling stuck, isolated, and unsupported. In fact, they're members of the disconnected youth — defined as Gen Zers who are not in school and not working. Disconnected youth are at risk of long-term stagnationMost Gen Zers — who are between the ages of 12 and 27 — are in this decisive decade. How to help disconnected youthAlthough many disconnected youth struggle with school and work, researchers cautioned against a "one size fits all" solution.
Persons: , Gen Zers, Richard Reeves, Reeves, Zers, aren't, Zers —, Jonathan Zaff, Ian Rowe, Lara Aknin, Zaff, Zer, isn't Organizations: Service, Brookings, Business, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, National Center for Education Statistics, Boston University, American Enterprise Institute, Partnership Locations: North America, Brookings
Tai chi, a traditional Chinese martial art known for slow, gentle movements, which she said helped her stress-proof her routine. "It was like I discovered a secret scroll because no one talked about tai chi in this way." How tai chi can make you mentally and physically stronger as you ageChock found tai chi by accident. Practicing tai chi has been linked to better wellbeing, lower risk of anxiety, and fewer symptoms of depression in some studies. "Tai chi is a way for you to understand these philosophies in life by learning them through your body.
Persons: , Shirley Chock, Chock, Tai Chi, Santiago Sepulveda Organizations: Service, Yale, Business Locations: Connecticut
According to Calamos investments' Matt Kaufman, there are trillions of dollars across CD and money market accounts, and it is a market ETFs should look to capture. "That's larger than almost the ETF space itself," the firm's head of ETFs told CNBC's "ETF Edge" earlier this week. Kaufman, who is in the interest rates will stay higher for longer camp, thinks structured and options ETFs designed for risk management and income can provide stability. "We saw it being difficult to get risk management and income from bonds when rates were so low," he said. Kaufman's firm Calamos just started launching a suite of 12 structured protection ETFs.
Persons: Matt Kaufman, Kaufman, Calamos
First is the movement your body is owed or requires every day, such as walking, stretching and bending. Second is athletic movement, which you can do a few times a week to improve your fitness or to train for a sport. Third is social movement that you do for fun or to connect with others, such as dancing or playing volleyball. Dancing is an excellent form of social movement that connects you to others while improving your overall health and fitness. Breaking down all these different movements into exercise snacks is one way to sneak in the movement your body needs, Boyd said.
Persons: it’s, Melissa Boyd, Boyd, , ” Boyd, , Carl Cirino, Cirino, ” Cirino, It’s, ” Melanie Radzicki McManus Organizations: CNN’s, CNN, European, Preventive Cardiology, Tempo, HSS, Stamford Health Locations: San Francisco, Connecticut
We’re paying for close to 100% of NATO.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. They don’t pay their bills.”Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. (It rose to about $314 billion in 2020, Trump’s last full year in office.) Facts First: Trump’s claim is false. Facts First: Trump’s claim that “nobody died other than Ashli” is false.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, , William Barr, Bill Barr, Barr, Bill, I’m, , it’s, Biden, Joe Biden, Tamar Hermann, Hermann, Bill Clinton, “ Trump, ” Trump, , National Guard Trump, I’ve, George Floyd, Tim Walz, Walz, Paul —, , Erwan, George Washington, “ don’t, they’re, Stoltenberg, Trump’s, Lagadec, Marc Lipsitch, Barack Obama, European Union won’t, Cortellessa, “ Moody’s, Moody’s, Mark Zandi, Zandi, ’ ” Zandi, Joe Biden’s, rioter Ashli Babbitt, Brian Sicknick, Sicknick, Trump’s ‘, patriotically, , patriotically ’, ” Nancy Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi, “ Nancy Pelosi, Pelosi, Christopher Miller, Miller, Eric Cortellessa, Alvin Bragg’s, Bragg, Matthew Colangelo, Colangelo, Alvin Bragg, ” Cortellessa, Hillary Clinton, , Roe, Wade, Kimberly Mutcherson, “ Donald Trump’s, Maya Manian, Mary Ziegler, Davis, Ziegler, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Roe should’ve, , Crime Biden, don’t, “ Biden, he’s, James Biden, Jeff Asher, Asher, It’s, ” “, ” Asher Organizations: Washington CNN, Time, Trump, NATO, Capitol, Trump’s, Trade Center, didn’t, World Trade Center, Department, ISIS, CNN, Democratic, White House, White, South Korea Trump, Pentagon’s Defense Manpower Data, Biden Administration, Congressional Research Service, Israel, Israeli Democracy Institute, National Guard, Minnesota Democratic Gov, Minnesota National Guard, Guard, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, Transatlantic, for Disease Control, World Bank, Washington Post, Harvard, Harvard’s, National, Trump -, of Health, Human Services, Strategic, Biden, U.S . International Trade Commission, European, Benz, Volkswagen, BMW, European Union, US, European Automobile Manufacturers ’ Association, Bloomberg Economics, US Capitol Police, Capitol Police, , Republican, Democratic Rep, National Guardsmen, District of Columbia National Guard, Army, Capitol Police Board, Senate, Justice Department, Pulitzer Foundation, Pulitzer, New York Times, Electoral, Democrat, ” Rutgers Law, American University, university’s Health, University of California, , Customs, Border Protection, Crime, Manchurian, Republicans, FBI Locations: , New York City, Saudi, Florida, al Qaeda, New York, Texas, Mexico, South Korea, Trump , South Korea, South, Korea, Israel, Washington, Trump , Minneapolis, Minneapolis, Trump, Minnesota, St, United States, Germany, Brussels, Belgium, Harvard University, China, EU, DC, Trump’s, , York, Manhattan, York’s, Russia, That’s
Higher interest rates in the United States and other countries mean investors can make bigger returns on investments there than they can in Japan. This encourages carry trades, in which investors borrow money in yen to invest it in higher-yielding assets priced in other currencies. That weakens the Japanese currency. A Big Mac costs 50% more in the next cheapest G10 currency, the New Zealand dollar, than it does in yen, he added. … and lots of drawbacksBut the falling yen has caused much pain at home and not just for small businesses like Japan Fraise.
Persons: hasn’t, Hiroko Ishikawa, “ It’s, ” Ishikawa, , we’re, We’re, Himari Semans, That’s, ” Nigel Green, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett, ” Sean Callow, , Sato Hitomi, Semans, I’ve, , Laura He, Chris Lau Organizations: Tokyo CNN, US, Reserve, CNN, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, deVere, greenback, Labor, Societe Generale, New Zealand, Japan’s National Tourism Organization, Tokyo’s Locations: Hong Kong, Tokyo, Japan, United States, Sydney, Hawaii
The Palestinian startup sceneOur business is based in Ramallah, where Raya lives. If starting a company in Ramallah could benefit the community by creating jobs and further building on the small startup scene there, we wanted to try. When "The Middle Frame" goes through a hard time in the future, we can look back at that screenshot. In the future, when our business is stable in a different market, we could maybe have a smaller operation in the Palestinian market. The Palestinian startup ecosystem needs more examples of successful startups in the wider region to support the startups in Palestine and more investment bodies to support the early-stage startups.
Persons: Mohammad Alnobani, Alnobani, , We'd, Raya, creatives, We're, I'd, I've, We've, Raya's, we've, it's Organizations: West Bank, Hamas, Service, Young, Palestine, Israel, Getty, UAE Locations: Gaza, Alnobani, Ramallah, Palestinian Territories, Amman, Jordan, Jerusalem, Belfast, Palestinian, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Nablus, Qatar, London, Boston, East, North Africa, it's, Egypt, Europe, Ramallah —, Dubai, Jordanian, Iran, UAE, Palestine
"I didn't want to be an old mom. Those in the other camp often think: "But aren't there potential health risks to giving birth later?" If you read the research, there are various suggested causes for this trend toward giving birth later, but I can only speak for myself. Sara LyleHere are three reasons why waiting to become a mom was the right path for me1. While being an "old mom" has come with a few wrinkles, both figuratively and literally, the laughter and love make it completely worth it.
Persons: , Griselda, Joe Manganiello, Vergara, Michelle Williams, Hilary Swank, It's, Sara Lyle, it's, there's Organizations: Service, Spanish, El, Business, United States Census Bureau Locations: New York, Colorado
Roger Wonson reached his milestone 100th birthday in April 2024. AdvertisementWhen Roger Wonson celebrated his 100th birthday with friends at his care facility, he provided the entertainment. "I get a lot of kicks from music," Wonson told Business Insider. He played saxophone and drums in several bands in his home state of Massachusetts. "I don't eat a lot," Wonson said.
Persons: Roger Wonson, , Wonson, It's, Michelle Boudreau, Mary Sue, Wanson, it's, didn't, Ted Talks, I've, Declan Organizations: Business, Service, US Air Force, Beverly Locations: Massachusetts
The data, gathered from the college and new grad career site Handshake, shows a similar share of seniors say the current economic news makes them feel pessimistic. 1 priority in looking for a job is to find one that will offer stability, and they're changing some of their career preferences to find it. Elsewhere, students from the class of 2024 were more likely to apply to jobs in construction, agriculture and education, according to Handshake data. Working more than a 9-to-5Rising seniors are preparing to work more than a 9-to-5 in order to make ends meet. Many are also hopeful that side-hustle income can supercharge their savings so they don't have to work a corporate job forever.
Persons: Christine Cruzvergara, Cruzvergara, they've, Young
Large technology stocks have continued to be a key driver of earnings growth. Those calls are based on the firms' expectation that the economy will continue to grow despite uncomfortably high interest rates. Bullish firms concur that elevated interest rates are a serious concern for investors. "Should the outlook for earnings growth deteriorate, the recent stretch of quality outperformance will likely continue and also expand to include stocks with stable growth," Kostin wrote. Along with each is its ticker, market capitalization, sector, 2024 expected earnings growth rate, and 10-year EBITDA growth variability rate, according to Goldman Sachs.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, That's, Jonathan Golub, David Lefkowitz, Stocks, they've, Mike Wilson, Morgan, 19.3x, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Wilson, Kostin, Russell Organizations: UBS, Business, UBS Beats, UBS Global Wealth Management, Companies, Federal Reserve
Biden cannot afford a boiling summer of protest
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
CNN —President Joe Biden can ill afford a long, hot summer of protest that comes to a boil in time for the Democratic National Convention in August and then bleeds into the final weeks of an already venomous clash with Donald Trump. The nationwide campus protests are not as pervasive as mass civil rights and anti-Vietnam War protests that raged in the 1960s and 1970s. This has been especially testing for Biden — a staunch supporter of Israel dating back to 1970s Prime Minister Golda Meir. More than 3 million Americans served in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam War. This may also help explain why Biden had not addressed the campus protests in detail before Thursday.
Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, , ” Biden, , Trump’s, Trump, James Traub, Hubert Humphrey, Biden “, ” Traub, Isa Soares, Traub, He’s, Mary McGrory, that’s, Biden’s, afer, Biden —, Golda Meir, he’d, Benjamin Netanyahu’s, Sen, Bernie Sanders, Lyndon Johnson, LBJ, , CNN’s Christiane Amanpour, ” Sanders, can’t, Netanyahu, shelve, Sanders Organizations: CNN, Democratic National Convention, White, Foreign, Democratic, CNN International, Republicans, Trump, Electoral, Gaza Health Ministry, American, National Guard Locations: Gaza, Vietnam, America, Israel, Vermont, Gazan, Rafah, Southeast Asia
In a letter to staff, McCarthy said the company needed to implement layoffs because it wouldn't be able to generate sustainable free cash flow with its current cost structure. "Achieving positive [free cash flow] makes Peloton a more attractive borrower, which is important as the company turns its attention to the necessary task of successfully refinancing its debt," McCarthy said in the memo. McCarthy had also expected Peloton to reach positive free cash flow by June — a goal the company said it reached early during its third quarter. In a letter to shareholders, Peloton said it generated $8.6 million in free cash flow but it's unclear how sustainable that number is. The company didn't provide specific guidance on what investors can expect with free cash flow in the quarters ahead but said it does expect to "deliver modest positive free cash flow" in its current quarter.
Persons: Barry McCarthy, McCarthy, Karen Boone, Chris Bruzzo, Jay Hoag, It's, John Foley, hasn't, Goldman Sachs, Boone, Barry, Bruzzo, , hadn't, Creditsafe, it's, Foley Organizations: Interactive, Allen & Company Sun Valley Conference, Spotify, Netflix, JPMorgan, LSEG, outperformance, CNBC Locations: Sun Valley , Idaho, lockstep
Read previewChina launched the first sea trial of its newest aircraft carrier on Wednesday, per the state-run news agency Xinhua. However, according to John Bradford, a Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs fellow, the Fujian falls far short of US aircraft carrier standards. Related stories"There is nothing yet that compares to the USS carriers," he told Business Insider. AdvertisementUnlike China's two other carriers, the Liaoning and Shandong , the Fujian features a catapult system designed to launch aircraft, according to reports, much like US aircraft carriers. Business Insider previously reported that China's two other aircraft carriers — the Liaoning and Shandong — had outdated Soviet-era designs and smaller air wings, making them notably inferior to US carriers.
Persons: , John Bradford, Bradford, Richard Kouyoumdjian Inglis, Gerald Ford, Shandong — Organizations: Service, Xinhua, Business, People's Liberation Army Navy, Foreign Relations International Affairs, US, CNN, Chilean Naval Reserve, Congressional Research Service, Center for Strategic, International Studies, CSIS, Gerald Ford Class, Defense, Naval Locations: China, Fujian, Shanghai's, Shanghai, Liaoning, Shandong
“The use of such chemicals is not an isolated incident, and is probably driven by Russian forces’ desire to dislodge Ukrainian forces from fortified positions and achieve tactical gains on the battlefield,” it said. Russia has previously denied using chemical weapons. The US has previously warned Russia against chemical warfare in Ukraine; in March 2022, a month after the invasion began, President Joe Biden said that NATO would respond if Russia used chemical weapons in Ukraine. The use of chemical weapons is banned by international law. Russia has signed those treaties and claims it doesn’t have chemical weapons, but the country has already been linked to the use of nerve agents against critics in recent years.
Persons: Ukraine’s, Chloropicrin, Joe Biden, Mallory Stewart, Sergei Skripal, Alexey Navalny –, Vladimir Putin, Navalny Organizations: CNN, US State Department, Ukrainian, Chemical Weapons Convention, CWC, Russian Embassy, CDC, State Department, United, United Arab Emirates, US, NATO Locations: United States, Russia, Ukraine, Russian, Netherlands, China, Azerbaijan, Belgium, Slovakia, Turkey, United Arab, Moscow, Ukrainian, Siberia
Seoul, South Korea CNN —China’s newest, largest and most-advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, took a big step to joining the world’s largest naval fleet on Wednesday as it set out from Shanghai for its first sea trials. “The sea trials will primarily test the reliability and stability of the aircraft carrier’s propulsion and electrical systems,” read an announcement from the state-run Xinhua news agency on Wednesday. The warship was launched in 2022 and has “completed its mooring trials, outfitting work and equipment adjustments” working up to the latest sea trials, Xinhua said. A tugboat tows China's third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, away from a dock in east China's Shanghai on May 1, 2024. The American aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford is seen from the air anchored in Italy in the Gulf of Trieste on September 18, 2023.
Persons: Li Tang, , John Bradford, Carl Schuster, Gerald R Ford, ” Bradford, Gerald R, Ford, Andrej Tarfila, Schuster, ” Schuster, Brian Hart, Yuan Huazhi, John F Kennedy, Doris Miller Organizations: South Korea CNN —, Jiangnan Shipyard, Maritime Safety Administration, Xinhua, Liberation Army, United States Navy, PLAN, Foreign Relations International Affairs, US, Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence, Nimitz, Ford, Center for Strategic, International Studies, Analysts, American, Chinese Defense Ministry, China Power, CSIS, Times, US Navy, Enterprise Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Fujian, Shanghai, East China, Jiangnan, Shandong, Liaoning, Italy, Gulf of Trieste, China
download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Pressure, stress, and lonelinessHead honchos have been calling out the difficulties of their jobs for years. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has bemoaned that running a company is "really not that fun" and "just awful" at times. "The depths of loneliness I experienced as a CEO are difficult to put into words," he posted on X in January. The combination of immense pressure, stress, loneliness, and lack of work-life balance that often comes with being a CEO may well explain why few people last long in the role.
Persons: , HSBC's Noel Quinn, Bob Bakish, Dr Martens, Kenny Wilson, Andrew Challenger, HSBC's Quinn, Elon Musk, Musk, Grzegorz Wajda, Brian Chesky, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett Organizations: Service, Paramount, Business, SpaceX, Berkshire, he's
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